Comments on: Steve Jobs’s Return is Still Vaporware

By: Twitter Trackbacks for Steve Jobs’ Return is Still Vaporware « Joe Wilcox [joewilcox.com] on Topsy.com

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 03:58:07 +0000

[...] Steve Jobs’ Return is Still Vaporware « Joe Wilcox http://www.joewilcox.com/2009/06/steve-jobs-return-is-still-vaporware – view page – cached #Joe Wilcox RSS Feed Joe Wilcox » Steve Jobs’ Return is Still Vaporware Comments Feed Joe Wilcox The Summer of iPhone’s Judgement Why Is There No iLife-Equivalent for Windows? Iran and the Internet Democracy — From the page [...]

By: A Personal Plea to Steve Jobs « Joe Wilcox

A Personal Plea to Steve Jobs « Joe Wilcox — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 02:44:29 +0000

[...] returned to work after a six-month medical leave of absence. Twice this month, on June 5 and 10 days ago, I said that you wouldn’t return as full-time CEO. Call me a liar. Make me the idiot. By [...]

By: Remembering iPhone Two Years Later « Joe Wilcox

Remembering iPhone Two Years Later « Joe Wilcox — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 23:54:33 +0000

[...] officially returning to work two years to the day that iPhone launched. I’ve asserted that he won’t return to full-time work as chief executive, and that COO Tim Cook will eventually be promoted to CEO. That opinion isn’t changed, but I [...]

By: sarah gilbert

sarah gilbert — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 05:46:32 +0000

manipulation: yes, I’d agree to that.

it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out; I have an unwavering belief in Steve Jobs complete unwillingness to admit defeat

By: Apple boss Steve Jobs to return to work after ‘liver transplant’ : GadgetsBiz.com: Reports

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 05:39:50 +0000

[...] the news of Jobs being on the mend has been met with a positive reception, others have accused Apple of being "up to its media manipulation tactics", deliberating letting the [...]

By: Joe Wilcox

Joe Wilcox — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 16:43:47 +0000

Please read my response to Sarah. I haven’t called it wrong, Avro.

A one-day appearance doesn’t mean he is coming back full time or that he will resume duties as full-time CEO. I still fully expect a slow return and eventual change in role. Steve Jobs will be the inspirational chairman, while letting Tim Cook run day-to-day operations but soon as CEO.

From my post: “I now do assert that he’s not returning as CEO, certainly not full time at the end of June and likely not full time ever.”

If Steve works a 40 hour week as CEO for the next month, then you can call me wrong. If Tim Cook isn’t appointed CEO by the beginning of Apple’s next fiscal year (or around time of Snow Leopard’s release), then you can call me wrong.

And I’ll gladly do a separate post about my misjudgment.

By: Avro

Avro — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 13:43:55 +0000

Joe you called this one as about as well as Apple failing in “this economy”.

Love your columns though!

By: whatever

whatever — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 09:12:09 +0000

Thanks for the answers to my questions – much appreciated.

I think you’re right that background applications are a competitive advantage, but i also think Push Notification Services is a competitive advantage for it’s own reasons – and will continue to be so even *when* the iPhone runs background apps.

It’s not realistic or practical or even convenient to run a large number of WSJ style content apps, Stock alert kind of apps, multiplayer games, etc in the background all the friggin time.
In essence i look at PNS more as a kind of souped up RSS for iPhone Apps, rather than a long term background app replacement – and that’s very valuable in it’s own right i think.

By: Joe Wilcox

Joe Wilcox — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 03:20:29 +0000

Well, whatever, I would expect a high percentage upgrading from the original iPhone as normal, if they’re satisfied.

You scenarios each get a yes. Definitely the same old Macheads are buying as they usually do, and the iPhone has garnered brand loyalty (creating a generation of mobile Macheads).

The real test is what happens over the next 60 days. In the countries where iPhone 3GS launched last week, I expect sales to drop off rather steeply but continue to be steady. I’m not with the Wall Street guys on this one. There will be a new wave of sales in the US after September, when more people qualify for discounted upgrades. I do expect iPhone 3G sales to be fairly consistent and quite good. The $99 is just too appealing.

That said, Apple’s contained launch (eight countries, if memory is correct) isn’t just logistical. It’s marketing, too. New countries mean new sales surges, which means more media attention and continued sales surges. But that doesn’t mean real growth, as in adding lots of new subscribers.

Competition is heating up. Lots of good smartphones, pretty much all able to run background applications, are coming to market. I think you’ll see less carrier churn, as acceptable alternatives come available. Sprint customers buying Palm Pre on T-Mobile users choosing myTouch 3G are lost new iPhone 3GS customers for AT&T. Same applies to new handsets available in overseas markets.

By: whatever

whatever — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 02:23:07 +0000

Indeed – although what does that indicate if most iPhones were sold in the US..?

On another matter – what is the implication of the survey data that says 56% of iPhone buyers are replacing a previous iPhone.

Should that be seen as “the bulk of purchases are made by the same hardcore Macheads, so the iPhone isn’t really reaching new customers” or “the iPhone has fostered brand loyalty”. In other words, is that a normal percentage after only 2 years in the market?